Our Philosophy 2018-02-08T17:03:44+00:00

“The only constant is change.”

Heraclitus (c. 535 BC – 475 BC)

When markets turn, successful investors turn with them.

This simple assertion applies to professional investors such as registered investment advisors, brokers, fund managers, and robo-advisors, as well as to everyday investors in 401(k)s and other employer-sponsored retirement plans. But it also applies to other finance professionals, such as chief financial officers, comptrollers, analysts, researchers, regulators, bankers, economic development professionals and countless others.

Being aware of and responsive to “market turns” can produce risk-adjusted returns that are higher, more predictable, and more sustainable than strategies that ignore market turns.

The actual average peak-to-trough loss experienced by buy & hold strategies (1990-2017)
Average amount of time securities tend to move in either a sustained uptrend or sustained downtrend.
Average 10-YR risk-adjusted improvement in gross return by adjusting based on prevailing trend.

*Data as of 8/2017.  Maximum drawdown calculated as percentage loss from historic peak to historic loss for each security.  Percentage of time securities trend based on historic average success rate for securities in clearTREND Library.  Gross performance statistics based on clearTREND best-fit solutions for each security in research library.  Please see Terms of Use for complete performance calculation information and important disclosures.

Until now, most investors have no way of consistently knowing when markets were turning or how to properly adjust their holdings to either take advantage of new opportunities or to reduce excessive risks.

But it’s not just investors.  CFOs and other non-investment finance professionals often don’t know for sure when their own industry is turning, leading to inefficient and sometimes harrowing outcomes for the companies they manage.  And for years, local and national media have only reported what the markets may have done today without providing the important context for what it all means.

For any participant in an economy – which really is all of us – “missing the turn” leads to lost opportunities, excessive risk, and inefficient outcomes over time.

To Be Successful, All Investors Need to Address Three Basic Issues…

What to Own...

Whether you're investing for growth, income, or a bit of both, what you should own is up to you.

What to Own...

Nearly every investor may decide to own some combination of mutual funds, stocks, bonds, annuities, real estate or commodities.  All of these expose investors to measurable risks.

How Much to Own...

Most investors assume incorrectly that they will be successful simply because they own a lot of different securities.

How Much to Own...

But many investors are over-diversifed, holding dozens of securities that tend to move in the same direction at the same time.  This is where most investors and advisors stop.

When to Own...

When markets turn, successful investors turn with them to reduce risk or to take advantage of new opportunities.

When to Own...

History teaches us that markets are dynamic.  So having a repeatable, disciplined approach to address current market trends is critical to long-term success.

clearTREND can help.

clearTREND identifies turning points for any mutual fund, exchange-traded fund (ETF), individual stock, economic sector, traded commodity, real estate investment trust, even individual countries and economic regions. It notifies a subscriber that a market turn is occurring, and most importantly prescribes the simple, straightforward action a subscriber can take to either minimize risk or take advantage of new opportunities.

When used consistently, clearTREND can produce improved and more consistent financial and investment outcomes for hundreds of thousands of subscribers in the U.S. and countless other international subscribers.

clearTREND is Built On One Simple, Nobel Prize-Winning Idea:

It’s called “Low Variance Investing” and it starts with Modern Portfolio Theory, the 1990 Nobel Prize-winning concept developed by William Sharpe and Harry Markowitz.  This theory identifies risk as “variability” – the periodic and often wide swings in returns that occur from time-to-time in all at-risk assets.

The basic idea is simple: Given a choice, most investors prefer assets or strategies that are likely to produce more predictable returns over time, also known as “Low Variance Investing.” This makes perfect sense. The problem today is that most investment securities and many strategies consistently demonstrate HIGHLY variable returns. Securities and strategies boom, then they bust, then they might boom again for a time.

But one fact is clear: highly variable returns can be disruptive to most investors, especially those with limited time horizons (such as investors approaching retirement) or those currently disbursing assets (such as retirees, pension funds, endowment accounts, college and other charitable foundations, etc.).

Despite winning the Nobel Prize, Modern Portfolio Theory isn’t without controversy, and is often misunderstood and misapplied.  Many assume that it only applies to the expected return and risk characteristics of individual securities or to individual asset classes – it does not.  In fact, Modern Portfolio Theory applies equally well to entire investment strategies too.

Used in this way, the variability of outcomes for passive strategies (such as indexing or “buy & hold” investing) can be compared to “risk-aware” strategies (like clearTREND) in an effort to improve the predictability of returns for investors across the globe.

Coming April 2018